日本防卫研究所《中国安全战略报告2016：扩大的人民解放军的活动范围与其战略》
目 录
序言 ······································································································································· iii
概要 ······································································································································· iv
前言 ········································································································································ 1
第一章 致力于提升远海作战能力的中国海军 ························································ 5
1 海军战略的历史沿革 ···································································································· 6
2 活跃、广域化的海军活动 ···························································································· 8
3 中国海军的今后动向 ································································································· 13
第二章 空军的战略性转型与能力提升 ··································································· 17
1 空军战略：从“国土防空” 向“空天一体、攻防兼备”转变 ······························ 18
2 空军装备的现代化 ····································································································· 20
3 中国空军的发展前景 ································································································· 24
专栏：“高新工程” ········································································································· 26
第三章 导弹力量的扩充 ····························································································· 27
1 以可靠的二次打击能力为目标的核力量 ································································· 28
2 常规导弹的发展 ········································································································· 33
3 第二炮兵的发展前景 ································································································· 37
专栏：“极超音速滑空体的开发” ················································································· 38
第四章 联合作战能力的增强 ···················································································· 39
1 致力于打赢信息化局部战争 ····················································································· 40
2 增强体系作战能力 ····································································································· 41
3 体制、编制改革的未来 ····························································································· 43
结语 ····································································································································· 47
注 ········································································································································· 50
概要
第一章 致力于提升远海作战能力的中国海军
中国海军自创建以来，其战略从“沿岸防御、近岸防御”向“近海防御”、“近海防御、远海防卫（护卫）”转变，作战海域从大陆的沿岸海域向东海、南海、进而向西太平洋和印度洋不断扩大。中国海军急速推进包括新建造国产航母等水面舰船、潜艇、飞机的现代化，稳步提高远海作战能力。今后，中国海军在近海可能会以确立在领土主权问题和海洋权益问题方面的优势为目标，致力于强化在海空域的存在。在西太平洋，为了防止美军对中国“核心利益”的干涉，可能会致力于配备新型核潜艇和展开装备了高性能反舰导弹的驱逐舰，强化ISR能力等。另外，为了保护向海外发展的中国企业和中国公民以及重要的海上交通运输线等，认为也会向印度洋推进。
第二章 空军的战略性转型与能力提升
中国空军的任务从传统的“国土防空”向旨在覆盖更广范围的“攻防兼备”转变。其中中国空军在远海的活动频繁，2015年，空军穿过巴士海峡，首次在西太平洋进行了演习。支持中国空军这样的活动扩大是空军装备的现代化。除了主要从俄罗斯进口等推进第四代战斗机的配备外，还将采用具备对地攻击能力的作战飞机作为重点。另外，还推进可装载远程巡航导弹的轰炸机续航距离的延伸。此外，也致力于ISR能力的扩充，以预警指挥机为首，投入了各种作战保障飞机。作为今后的发展方向，可能会致力于扩充作为短板的大型运输机和加油机，通过隐形机和无人攻击机等增强攻击能力，采用防空、导弹防御系统、开发对宇宙的攻击能力等。
第三章 导弹力量的扩充
第二炮兵（2015年12月底改编为“火箭军”）从仅运用核力量的军种向兼备核力量与常规力量（核常兼备）的军种变化。中国的核战略具有政治优先、宣布不首先使用、核弹头的渐增、平时将核弹头拆下保管等特点。中国以保持可靠的二次打击能力为目标，推进核力量性能的提高，稳步推进拥有的弹道导弹向固体燃料化、车辆移动式转变以及实现MIRV化。另外，未来是否仍然奉行不首先使用核武器的原则等也是今后的关注点。
上世纪90年代以后，第二炮兵的显著倾向是大幅增强常规导弹力量。关于常规导弹的运用与核导弹不同，提出了进攻型概念，重视先机制敌、对作为敌方要害的C4ISR和战略投送关键点进行精确打击。第二炮兵致力于短程及中程弹道导弹的充实，提高了使用常规导弹进行精确打击的能力。另外，可在海、空平台装载的巡航导弹的充实也受到关注。这些导弹力量的充实构成中国的A2AD能力核心，其动向成为关注点。中国的这种导弹力量的发展造成了地域安全保障环境的复杂化，需要注视其未来的动向。
第四章 联合作战能力的增强
中国人民解放军在论述其军事战略的国防白皮书中表明重视“打赢信息化局部战争”和“海上军事斗争”的姿态。与取决于武器装备和弹药、燃料等物资量的“机械化战争”不同，以打赢信息的运用能力发挥决定性作用的“信息化战争”为目标，中国军队致力于强化“基于信息系统的体系作战能力”。关于信息系统，以提高ISR能力和实现有效的指挥、网电对抗的强化等为目标，推进宇宙空间的军事利用。关于加强体系作战能力，通过联合运用陆、海、空、第二炮兵，致力于飞跃性提高战斗力。为了实现这项战略，习近平主席推进军队体制、编制的改革，成立陆军领导机构、火箭军、战略支援部队，并进行中央军事委员会的调整组建等。今后，这些改革能否顺利进展受到关注。
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