美国外交关系委员会(2017）CFR: 2018年度值得关注的八项主要威胁
2017年12月11日，美国外交关系委员会(CFR)发布第十个年度《值得关注的主要威胁》报告（Preventive Priorities Survey）。报告列出了美国在2018年应高度关注的八项潜在冲突危机，特别强调美国和朝鲜以及伊朗可能发生的武装冲突是关系国际社会的重大问题。
本年度报告由CFR的预防行动中心（CPA）编写。中心邀请多名外交政策专家将三十项已经或可能出现的冲突事件按发生（或升级）概率以及对美国国家利益的潜在影响度进行排序，最后筛选出如下八项"一级"冲突威胁：
朝鲜及其周边国家与美国发生军事冲突。
因伊朗卷入地区冲突或支持武装代理人组织（包括也门胡塞武装和黎巴嫩真主党），而导致伊朗和美国或其盟国发生武装对峙。
针对美国关键基础设施和网络的极具破坏性的网络攻击。
俄罗斯与北约成员国之间因俄在东欧的武断行为发生有预谋或无预谋的军事对峙。
因南海问题中国与一个或多个南亚国家和地区（文莱、马来西亚、菲律宾、台湾或越南）发生武装对峙。
国外或国内恐怖分子对美国或其北约盟国发动大规模恐怖袭击。
由于政府武装试图夺回领土导致叙利亚国内动乱加剧，美国、俄罗斯和伊朗等外部力量的介入使局势更加紧张。
由于塔利班暴乱和可能发生的政府倒台加剧阿富汗国内的动荡不安。
CPA负责人表示，随着全球武装冲突风险加大，美国应该有选择地加以关注或投放军力，年度《值得关注的主要威胁》报告正是针对这一目的撰写的。很多前些年的报告中所关注的威胁事项在2018年仍将是关注重点。今年报告中列出的三十项主要威胁中，有二十八项在去年的报告中就存在，而新出现的八项威胁主要来源于以色列和黎巴嫩真主党之间的冲突加剧，以及巴尔干地区紧张态势升级或极端主义暴力活动。 有两项威胁今年升级为一级威胁：一项是伊朗和美国或其盟国之间发生武装对峙，另一项是中国与一个或多个南亚争议国家或地区就南海问题发生武装对峙。另有两项威胁被降级：一项是土耳其和其国内以及邻国库尔德武装组织之间的暴力冲突，另一项是利比亚的暴乱。
中文摘要转自：http://cn.uscnpm.org/model_item.html?action=view&table=article&id=14883
Preventive Priorities Survey: 2018
The Council on Foreign Relations' tenth annual Preventive Priorities Survey identified eight top conflict prevention priorities for the United States in the year ahead, highlighting armed confrontations between the United States and North Korea and Iran as serious international concerns.
The Global Conflict Tracker: Learn About the World's Top Hotspots
The survey, conducted by CFR's Center for Preventive Action (CPA) asked foreign policy experts to rank thirty ongoing or potential conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring or escalating in the next year and their potential impact on U.S. national interests.
This year, eight conflicts were considered "top tier" risks:
- military conflict involving the United States, North Korea , and its neighboring countries
- an armed confrontation between Iran and the United States or one of its allies over Iran's involvement in regional conflicts and support of militant proxy groups, including the Yemeni Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah
- a highly disruptive cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure and networks
- a deliberate or unintended military confrontation between Russia and North Atlantic Treaty Organization members, stemming from assertive Russian behavior in Eastern Europe
- an armed confrontation over disputed maritime areas in the South China Sea between China and one or more Southeast Asian claimants—Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, or Vietnam
- a mass casualty terrorist attack on the U.S. homeland or a treaty ally by either foreign or homegrown terrorist(s)
- intensified violence in Syria as government forces attempt to regain control over territory, with heightened tensions among external parties to the conflict, including the United States, Russia, and Iran
- increased violence and instability in Afghanistan resulting from the Taliban insurgency and potential government collapse
"With the risk of armed conflict growing in the world, the United States needs to make smart choices about where to focus attention and resources to avert potentially costly military engagements. Our annual Preventive Priorities Survey is designed to help U.S. policymakers do just that," said Paul B. Stares , General John W. Vessey senior fellow for conflict prevention, CPA director, and author of the new book Preventive Engagement: How America Can Avoid War, Stay Strong, and Keep the Peace .
Many of the contingencies identified in previous surveys remain concerns for 2018. Of the thirty identified this year, twenty-two were considered risks last year. Among the eight new contingencies in this year's survey are the risks of intensified clashes between Israel and Hezbollah, increased violence and political instability in the Sahel region of Africa, and escalating tensions or extremist violence in the Balkans.
Two contingencies were upgraded to the top tier this year: an armed confrontation between Iran and the United States or one of its allies, and an armed confrontation over disputed maritime areas in the South China Sea between China and one or more Southeast Asian claimants.
The 2018 survey downgraded the priority rankings of two contingencies, compared to last year: the intensification of violence between Turkey and various Kurdish armed groups within Turkey and neighboring countries, and the probability of greater violence in Libya.
CPA's Global Conflict Tracker plots ongoing conflicts on an interactive map paired with background information, CFR analysis, and news updates.
The Preventive Priorities Survey was made possible by a generous grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the Center for Preventive Action.
英文版出自：https://www.cfr.org/report/preventive-priorities-survey-2018
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