中美有望重启贸易谈判

2018-08-02 作者: 原文 #中國戰略分析 的其它文章

The U.S. and China are trying to restart talks aimed at averting a full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies, two people familiar with the effort said.

两位内部人士说,美国和中国试图重启谈判,避免让世界两个最大经济体全面爆发贸易战。

Representatives of U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He are having private conversations as they look for ways to reengage in negotiations, according to the people who spoke about the deliberations on condition of anonymity.

美财政部长史蒂芬·姆钦和中国副总理刘鹤的代表正在私下接触,寻求重启谈判的方式,这两位不愿意透露姓名的人士说。

They cautioned that a specific timetable, the issues to be discussed and the format for talks aren’t finalized, but added there was agreement among the principals that more discussions need to take place. Negotiations to resolve the dispute have been stalled for weeks, with both sides refusing to budge .

他们提醒说,具体的时间表、计划讨论的问题和谈判方式还未确定,但主要人物达成共识,要进行进一步磋商。解决争端的谈判停滞了数周,双方都拒绝让步。

High-level U.S. talks on the Trump administration’s trade posture toward China are taking place this week, according to a third person who also spoke on the condition of anonymity. U.S. stocks rose, Treasury yields edged higher, the offshore yuan erased an earlier drop and the dollar pared gains.

另一位也不愿透露姓名的人说,美国高层关于特朗普政府对华贸易态度的讨论本周也在进行。美国股市上扬,国债收益率推高,离岸人民币收复失地,美元收益削减。

The next wave of U.S. tariffs is set to kick in as soon as Wednesday, with the possible imposition of duties on another $16 billion of Chinese imports. The implementation could be delayed for weeks as the administration works out the details of which products it will target. Officials in Beijing have vowed to respond with the same amount of tariffs on U.S. products.

美国下一轮关税定于周三起生效,可能对160亿中国进口商品征收关税。政府正在制定将哪些产品纳入其中,因此其实施会延迟几周。北京官员曾表示要以同等力度对美国商品征收关税。

One person familiar with the internal deliberations said the U.S. is trying to secure certain concessions and if China agrees, it is possible the U.S. would back off additional tariffs.

一个熟悉内情的人说,美国试图让中国做出某些让步,如果中国同意,美国可能不再进一步征收关税。

Complicating Mnuchin’s efforts is a harder line taken by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who has jurisdiction over the U.S.’s 301 investigation that sparked the tariffs. That case concluded China was stealing American technology and tariffs were needed to offset the damage.

美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽的路线更加强硬,这让姆钦的努力前途难料。莱特希泽负责美国301调查,后者是征收关税的起因。301调查案得出结论,认为中国盗窃美国技术,因此需要征收关税来对冲这种损失。

A U.S. Treasury spokesman didn’t respond to a request for comment.

美财政部发言人没有做出回应。

‘Chronic Problem’

U.S. and Chinese officials have given little recent indication in public that a restart to negotiations might be in the offing . Lighthizer said last week that trade tensions with China are a “chronic problem,” while China’s representative at the World Trade Organization accused the U.S. of “extortion.”

美国和中国官员最近在公开场合几乎不曾提及即将重启谈判。莱特希泽上周说,与中国的贸易冲突是“长期问题”,而中国世贸组织代表指责美国“勒索”。

The two sides held three rounds of formal talks, beginning with a delegation to Beijing led by Mnuchin in May. After Liu visited Washington later that month, the nations released a joint statement pledging to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China, among other things. But within days, President Donald Trump himself backed away from the deal, saying talks would “probably have to use a different structure.”

双方进行了三轮正式谈判,首先是姆钦代表团五月赴华,当月末刘鹤访问华盛顿,两国发布联合声明,承诺降低美国对华贸易逆差等。但几天后,特朗普总统自己毁约,表示谈判“可能不得不使用另一种形式”。

Negotiations broke off after the Trump administration imposed tariffs on $34 billion in Chinese imports this month, a move the Chinese said would void any promises they’d made in negotiations. Beijing responded in kind with its own tariffs.

本月特朗普政府开始对价值340亿的中国进口商品征收关税后,谈判破裂了,中国表示,征税行为让谈判中做出的一切承诺失效。北京的回应是征收同等数额的关税。

Trump’s mission to reduce the U.S. trade deficit via the threat of tariffs has brought him into conflict with China as well as U.S. allies, roiling financial markets and raising fears of a global trade war the International Monetary Fund has warned may undermine the strongest economic upswing in years.

特朗普要挟以关税来降低美国贸易赤字的做法让他和中国以及美国的盟国发生冲突,导致金融市场波动,增加了人们对全球贸易战的担忧。国际货币基金组织警告说,全球贸易战会拖累数年来最强劲的经济增长。

ZTE Deal

Chinese and U.S. officials have struggled to find a starting place for a new round of talks. After taking a hard line on Chinese telecom equipment maker ZTE Corp., the Trump administration this month finished a deal that allowed the company to stay in business. Trump said the pact was a personal favor to Chinese President Xi Jinping.

中国和美国官员试图找到启动新一轮谈判的着手点,但困难重重。对中国电信设备商中兴采取强硬立场后,特朗普政府本月达成协议,允许该公司继续运营,特朗普说这是出于私交。

In exchange for the U.S. letting ZTE survive, Chinese regulators were expected to approve a deal between San Diego-based Qualcomm Inc. and rival chipmaker NXP Semiconductors NV, based in Eindhoven, Netherlands.

为了美国让放中兴一马,人们预计中国监管者会批准美国圣地亚哥的高通公司与芯片制造商、荷兰埃因霍温的恩智浦达成协议。

Mnuchin was among the Cabinet officials involved in a last-minute effort early last week to get the Qualcomm-NXP deal approved before the companies vowed to walk away from it on July 25, the people said. Mnuchin’s efforts were unsuccessful and Qualcomm scrapped its $44 billion bid for NXP. The people familiar with the U.S.-China dispute said the U.S. has privately expressed dismay to the highest levels of the Chinese government that the deal fell through.

有消息称,姆钦等内阁官员上周早些时候还在做最后的努力,希望高通-恩智浦交易获批,但25日,两家公司宣布放弃。姆钦功败垂成,高通取消了440亿美元收购恩智浦的要约。熟悉美中贸易摩擦的人说,高通交易流产,美国私下里对中国高层表示失望。

出处 : 彭博社


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