ForeignAffairsMag在2021-06-07~2021-06-13的言论
- 2: The Real Root Causes of America’s Border Crisis And How Biden Can Address Them, submitted on 2021-06-08 00:52:13+08:00.
- 3: America Is Not Ready for a War With China: How to Get the Pentagon to Focus on the Real Threats, submitted on 2021-06-11 00:51:06+08:00.
2: The Real Root Causes of America’s Border Crisis And How Biden Can Address Them, submitted on 2021-06-08 00:52:13+08:00.
—– 2.1 —–2021-06-08 00:54:37+08:00:
[SS from the article by Michael A. Clemens, a Fellow at the Center for Global Development and the IZA Institute of Labor Economics.]
Biden’s plan won’t slow the traffic at the U.S. border overnight, but it may help stabilize the flow over time, preventing the kinds of extreme surges of irregular migration that occurred at the beginning of this year. For the plan to work, however, Biden and his team must understand that migration pressures from the Northern Triangle follow two starkly different patterns: long waves that last decades and short spikes that last months.
The former, perhaps paradoxically, are symptoms of rising prosperity in the countries from which migrants hail, whereas the latter stem from crises and shocks. Any successful agenda focusing on root causes must distinguish between these two patterns of migratory pressure—encouraging the economic gains that drive long-wave migration while preventing the kinds of emergencies that drive short-wave surges.
3: America Is Not Ready for a War With China: How to Get the Pentagon to Focus on the Real Threats, submitted on 2021-06-11 00:51:06+08:00.
—– 3.1 —–2021-06-11 00:57:23+08:00:
[SS by Michael Beckley, Associate Professor of Political Science at Tufts University and the author of Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower.]
It has become conventional wisdom that this gathering storm represents the inevitable result of Beijing’s rise and Washington’s decline. In fact, it is nothing of the sort. The United States has vast resources and a viable strategy to counter China’s military expansion. Yet the U.S. defense establishment has been slow to adopt this strategy and instead wastes resources on obsolete forces and nonvital missions. Washington’s current defense posture doesn’t make military sense, but it does make political sense—and it could very well endure. Historically, the United States has revamped its military only after enemies have exposed its weaknesses on the battlefield. The country may once again be headed for such a disaster.
To change course, the Biden administration must explicitly and repeatedly order the military to focus on deterring China and downsize its other missions. These orders need to be fleshed out and codified in the administration’s defense budget requests and in its National Defense Strategy. In addition, the administration should support the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, a program that would plug holes in the U.S. defense perimeter in Asia. If the United States does not seize this chance to secure its military advantage over China, it may not get another.
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