ForeignAffairsMag在2021-09-20~2021-09-26的言论
32: The Future of Conquest: Fights Over Small Places Could Spark the Next Big War, submitted on 2021-09-24 22:17:24+08:00.
—– 32.1 —–2021-09-24 22:32:34+08:00:
[SS from the article by Dan Altman, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Georgia State University.]
That portrayal of conquest’s demise is hopeful, but it is not accurate. Conquest remains a central issue in international politics—it has merely become smaller. Yes, attempts to conquer entire countries became rare after World War II: more than 30 years have passed since the last wholesale conquest of a country, when Iraq briefly conquered Kuwait. But there have been more than 70 attempts to conquer territory since 1945. As a rule of thumb, modern conquests ordinarily seize territories no larger than one province in size and typically much smaller. When the aggressor seizes only a small piece of territory rather than an entire country, the international community rarely intervenes to defend the victim. Indeed, attempts to conquer territory succeed about as often as they did a century ago: approximately half the time.
There is a clear strategy behind these small conquests. The idea is to take a small enough piece of land that the victim will relent to its loss rather than escalate the conflict to retake it. This strategy provokes war much less often than attempting to conquer countries outright. It succeeds much more frequently than diplomatic threats.
文章版权归原作者所有。
