ForeignAffairsMag在2021-11-29~2021-12-05的言论
- 56: Green Upheaval: The New Geopolitics of Energy, submitted on 2021-11-30 21:41:10+08:00.
- 57: How Migrants Got Weaponized: The EU Set the Stage for Belarus’s Cynical Ploy, submitted on 2021-12-02 22:30:02+08:00.
56: Green Upheaval: The New Geopolitics of Energy, submitted on 2021-11-30 21:41:10+08:00.
—– 56.1 —–2021-11-30 21:43:54+08:00:
[SS from the article by Jason Bordoff, Founding Director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University and Meghan L. O’Sullivan Professor of the Practice of International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School.]
“Talk of a smooth transition to clean energy is fanciful: there is no way that the world can avoid major upheavals as it remakes the entire energy system, which is the lifeblood of the global economy and underpins the geopolitical order. Moreover, the conventional wisdom about who will gain and who will lose is frequently off base. The so-called petrostates, for example, may enjoy feasts before they suffer famines, because dependence on the dominant suppliers of fossil fuels, such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, will most likely rise before it falls. And the poorest parts of the world will need to use vast quantities of energy—far more than in the past—to prosper even as they also face the worst consequences of climate change. Meanwhile, clean energy will come to represent a new source of national power but will itself introduce new risks and uncertainties.
These are not arguments to slow or abandon the energy transition. On the contrary, countries around the world must accelerate efforts to combat climate change. But these are arguments to encourage policymakers to look beyond the challenges of climate change itself and to appreciate the risks and dangers that will result from the jagged transition to clean energy. More consequential right now than the long-term geopolitical implications of a distant net-zero world are the sometimes counterintuitive short-term perils that will arrive in the next few decades, as the new geopolitics of clean energy combines with the old geopolitics of oil and gas. A failure to appreciate the unintended consequences of various efforts to reach net zero will not only have security and economic implications; it will also undermine the energy transition itself. If people come to believe that ambitious plans to tackle climate change endanger energy reliability or affordability or the security of energy supplies, the transition will slow. Fossil fuels might eventually fade. The politics—and geopolitics—of energy will not.”
57: How Migrants Got Weaponized: The EU Set the Stage for Belarus’s Cynical Ploy, submitted on 2021-12-02 22:30:02+08:00.
—– 57.1 —–2021-12-02 22:30:29+08:00:
[SS from the article by Mark Galeotti, author of the forthcoming book The Weaponisation of Everything]
“The events on the Belarusian border may have been unusually dispiriting, but the political calculations behind them are hardly new. As the number of migrants, displaced people, and refugees has exploded in recent years, advanced economies in Europe and elsewhere have resorted to increasingly harsh measures to keep them out. In turn, gateway countries such as Libya, Turkey, and now Belarus have new incentives to use the threat of mass migration to extract aid money and other concessions. Increasingly, migration has become a matter not of policy and diplomacy but of coercion, blackmail, and dirty deals. Far from an anomaly, the Belarus case is simply the next stage in the weaponization of migrants.”
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