ForeignAffairsMag在2022-01-03~2022-01-09的言论

2022-01-08 作者: ForeignAffairsMag 原文 #Reddit 的其它文章

75: The End of Cyber-Anarchy?: How to Build a New Digital Order, submitted on 2022-01-03 23:18:27+08:00.

—– 75.1 —–2022-01-03 23:19:39+08:00:

[SS from the article by Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Professor Emeritus at and former Dean of the Harvard Kennedy School]

“Although cybertechnology presents unique challenges, international norms to govern its use appear to be developing in the usual way: slowly but steadily, over the course of decades. As they take hold, such norms will be increasingly critical to reducing the risk that cybertechnology advances could pose to the international order, especially if Washington and its allies and partners reinforce those norms with other methods of deterrence. Although some analysts argue that deterrence does not work in cyberspace, that conclusion is simplistic: it works in different ways than in the nuclear domain. And alternative strategies have proved equally or more deficient. As targets continue to proliferate, the United States must pursue a strategy that combines deterrence and diplomacy to strengthen the guardrails in this new and dangerous world. The record of establishing norms in other areas offers a useful place to start—and should dispel the notion that this issue and this time are different.”

76: How Extremism Went Mainstream: How Extremism Went Mainstream, submitted on 2022-01-03 23:57:40+08:00.

—– 76.1 —–2022-01-03 23:59:11+08:00:

[SS from the article by Cynthia Miller-Idriss, Director of the Polarization and Extremism Research and Innovation Lab at American University]

“At a minimum, the United States needs a well-resourced interagency task force to carry out the prevention efforts currently controlled exclusively by the security and intelligence sectors. The focus should be on building democratic resilience in the mainstream, not just mitigating the risk of violence from the fringe—with decision-making authority granted to experts in education, social work, and mental health. Washington should also provide significant funding for this kind of work to states and municipalities, making clear that such efforts are more than an afterthought to the security measures on which the United States spends untold billions of dollars.In the absence of such steps, the risk of more political violence will continue to grow. In a November poll, troublingly low numbers of respondents said they would trust the official results of the 2024 presidential election if their preferred candidate loses: 82 percent of Democrats and only 33 percent of Republicans. If officials can’t find ways to push extremist ideas back to the fringes, the January 6 riot might someday look less like the last gasp of Trump-era extremism and more like a prelude to an era of violent division.”

77: How Extremism Went Mainstream: Washington Needs a New Approach to Preventing Far-Right Violence, submitted on 2022-01-04 00:40:35+08:00.

—– 77.1 —–2022-01-04 00:40:47+08:00:

[SS from the article by Cynthia Miller-Idriss, Director of the Polarization and Extremism Research and Innovation Lab at American University]

“At a minimum, the United States needs a well-resourced interagency task force to carry out the prevention efforts currently controlled exclusively by the security and intelligence sectors. The focus should be on building democratic resilience in the mainstream, not just mitigating the risk of violence from the fringe—with decision-making authority granted to experts in education, social work, and mental health. Washington should also provide significant funding for this kind of work to states and municipalities, making clear that such efforts are more than an afterthought to the security measures on which the United States spends untold billions of dollars.In the absence of such steps, the risk of more political violence will continue to grow. In a November poll, troublingly low numbers of respondents said they would trust the official results of the 2024 presidential election if their preferred candidate loses: 82 percent of Democrats and only 33 percent of Republicans. If officials can’t find ways to push extremist ideas back to the fringes, the January 6 riot might someday look less like the last gasp of Trump-era extremism and more like a prelude to an era of violent division.”

78: How to Forecast Outbreaks and Pandemics: America Needs the Contagion Equivalent of the National Weather Service, submitted on 2022-01-04 02:25:11+08:00.

—– 78.1 —–2022-01-04 02:27:02+08:00:

[SS]

Revisit this article by Caitlin Rivers, Senior Scholar and Assistant Professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Dylan George Vice President, Technical Staff, at In-Q-Tel. Here’s a guest pass: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/redeem/xqvFCmB6ciI

79: Erdogan’s End Game: Will He Undermine Turkish Democracy to Stay in Power?, submitted on 2022-01-04 23:00:39+08:00.

—– 79.1 —–2022-01-04 23:02:06+08:00:

[SS from the article by Soner Cagaptay, Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy]

“In recent years, however, Erdogan’s authoritarian populism has lost its magic. Since the coup attempt, his government has become increasingly paranoid, going after not only suspected coup plotters but also members of the democratic opposition and subsequently arresting tens of thousands of people and forcing more than 150,000 academics, journalists, and others out of their jobs on suspicion of ties to the coup or simply for standing up to Erdogan. And his growing willingness to meddle in elections—including a bungled effort to reverse the outcome of Istanbul’s 2019 mayoral election—has galvanized the opposition.

Now, with his support drastically eroding, the leader of the oldest democracy and biggest economy between Italy and India faces a reckoning: in 18 months’ time, Turkey will hold a presidential election that Erdogan is very unlikely to win. And because of his long legacy of corruption and abuse of power, he could well be prosecuted if ousted. It seems clear that Erdogan will try to do everything he can to stay in office, including undermining a fair vote, disregarding the result, or even fomenting a January 6–like insurrection. The urgent challenge confronting the country, then, is how to engineer a transfer of power that does not threaten the foundations of Turkish democracy itself, potentially sending shock waves of instability beyond the country’s borders into Europe and the Middle East.”

80: Erdogan’s End Game: Will He Undermine Turkish Democracy to Stay in Power?, submitted on 2022-01-04 23:06:11+08:00.

—– 80.1 —–2022-01-04 23:06:39+08:00:

[SS from the article by Soner Cagaptay, Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy]
“In recent years, however, Erdogan’s authoritarian populism has lost its magic. Since the coup attempt, his government has become increasingly paranoid, going after not only suspected coup plotters but also members of the democratic opposition and subsequently arresting tens of thousands of people and forcing more than 150,000 academics, journalists, and others out of their jobs on suspicion of ties to the coup or simply for standing up to Erdogan. And his growing willingness to meddle in elections—including a bungled effort to reverse the outcome of Istanbul’s 2019 mayoral election—has galvanized the opposition.
Now, with his support drastically eroding, the leader of the oldest democracy and biggest economy between Italy and India faces a reckoning: in 18 months’ time, Turkey will hold a presidential election that Erdogan is very unlikely to win. And because of his long legacy of corruption and abuse of power, he could well be prosecuted if ousted. It seems clear that Erdogan will try to do everything he can to stay in office, including undermining a fair vote, disregarding the result, or even fomenting a January 6–like insurrection. The urgent challenge confronting the country, then, is how to engineer a transfer of power that does not threaten the foundations of Turkish democracy itself, potentially sending shock waves of instability beyond the country’s borders into Europe and the Middle East.”

81: Erdogan’s End Game: Will He Undermine Turkish Democracy to Stay in Power?, submitted on 2022-01-04 23:07:59+08:00.

—– 81.1 —–2022-01-04 23:08:35+08:00:

[SS from the article by Soner Cagaptay, Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy]
“In recent years, however, Erdogan’s authoritarian populism has lost its magic. Since the coup attempt, his government has become increasingly paranoid, going after not only suspected coup plotters but also members of the democratic opposition and subsequently arresting tens of thousands of people and forcing more than 150,000 academics, journalists, and others out of their jobs on suspicion of ties to the coup or simply for standing up to Erdogan. And his growing willingness to meddle in elections—including a bungled effort to reverse the outcome of Istanbul’s 2019 mayoral election—has galvanized the opposition.
Now, with his support drastically eroding, the leader of the oldest democracy and biggest economy between Italy and India faces a reckoning: in 18 months’ time, Turkey will hold a presidential election that Erdogan is very unlikely to win. And because of his long legacy of corruption and abuse of power, he could well be prosecuted if ousted. It seems clear that Erdogan will try to do everything he can to stay in office, including undermining a fair vote, disregarding the result, or even fomenting a January 6–like insurrection. The urgent challenge confronting the country, then, is how to engineer a transfer of power that does not threaten the foundations of Turkish democracy itself, potentially sending shock waves of instability beyond the country’s borders into Europe and the Middle East.”

82: The Unity of India (January 1938), submitted on 2022-01-05 04:05:42+08:00.

—– 82.1 —–2022-01-05 04:06:24+08:00:

From the Foreign Affairs archives: Jawaharlal Nehru’s essay written during India’s independence struggle. Here’s a guest pass: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/redeem/EVUkInyzIoY

83: Europe Strong and Safe: To Deter Russia, America Must Help Revive the Region’s Security Architecture, submitted on 2022-01-05 23:47:04+08:00.

—– 83.1 —–2022-01-05 23:48:54+08:00:

[SS from the article by Ivo H. Daalder, President of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and U.S. Ambassador to NATO from 2009 to 2013, and James M. Goldgeier, Professor of International Relations at American University.]

“Security in Europe today is more precarious than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Russia, the United States, NATO, and other states in Europe must rebuild the foundations of European security around the core principles established back then. Russia has the right not to fear invasion by the West. NATO members have the right not to fear invasion by Russia. And Ukraine has the right to pursue a democratic future free from Russian interference and intimidation. These fundamental rights would be easier to preserve if the Helsinki architecture were restored. Doing so will be difficult. But as the Cold War demonstrated, even the fiercest adversaries can find ways to prevent the nightmare scenario of great-power war returning to Europe.”

—– 84.1 —–2022-01-05 23:54:12+08:00:

[SS from the article by Kelsey P Norman, Fellow for the Middle East at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy]

“For now, officials in wealthy liberal democracies see containing migrants and refugees or offshoring systems of asylum as easy political wins. Leaders claim that they are acting in the best interests of migrants and asylum seekers, sparing them the perils of a cross-border journey, but in reality these policies trap migrants in countries that are not prepared to protect or assist them. Although such strategies may temporarily reduce arrivals or divert migratory routes, they do not offer long-term solutions. As long as migrants and refugees are left without viable means to rebuild their lives, the pressure to move will remain.”

85: January 6 and the Paradoxes of America’s Democracy Agenda: Why Protecting Liberalism Will Require a Dose of Populism, submitted on 2022-01-06 21:36:53+08:00.

—– 85.1 —–2022-01-06 21:38:13+08:00:

[SS from the article by Larry Diamond, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution]

“A global democratic countermovement will find its energy and conviction challenged as long as it depends for leadership on a democracy as troubled as the United States. This is the paradox of global democracy today: the fate of freedom still rests on a deeply flawed and unstable democratic superpower. Inside that paradox rests a series of other paradoxes—a set of sobering obstacles to the dream of global democratic renewal.”

86: January 6 and the Paradoxes of America’s Democracy Agenda: Why Protecting Liberalism Will Require a Dose of Populism, submitted on 2022-01-06 23:20:25+08:00.

—– 86.1 —–2022-01-06 23:20:56+08:00:

[SS from the article by Larry Diamond, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution]
“A global democratic countermovement will find its energy and conviction challenged as long as it depends for leadership on a democracy as troubled as the United States. This is the paradox of global democracy today: the fate of freedom still rests on a deeply flawed and unstable democratic superpower. Inside that paradox rests a series of other paradoxes—a set of sobering obstacles to the dream of global democratic renewal.”

87: January 6 and the Paradoxes of America’s Democracy Agenda: Why Protecting Liberalism Will Require a Dose of Populism, submitted on 2022-01-07 03:36:54+08:00.

—– 87.1 —–2022-01-07 03:37:42+08:00:

[SS from the article by Larry Diamond, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution]
“A global democratic countermovement will find its energy and conviction challenged as long as it depends for leadership on a democracy as troubled as the United States. This is the paradox of global democracy today: the fate of freedom still rests on a deeply flawed and unstable democratic superpower. Inside that paradox rests a series of other paradoxes—a set of sobering obstacles to the dream of global democratic renewal.”

88: The Case for Cyber-Realism: Geopolitical Problems Don’t Have Technical Solutions, submitted on 2022-01-07 23:34:58+08:00.

—– 88.1 —–2022-01-07 23:37:09+08:00:

[SS from the article Dmitri Alperovitch, Co-Founder and Chair of Silverado Policy Accelerator and Co-Founder and former Chief Technology Officer of the cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike.]
“As the range of cyberthreats multiplies and the frequency and severity of attacks increase, Washington needs a dose of cyber-realism. It must treat cyberthreats as a geopolitical and national security priority that demands hard-nosed diplomacy—backed by all of the United States’ tools for gaining leverage—to entice or threaten U.S. adversaries into changing their behavior, as Obama did in 2015. The specific carrots and sticks will need to be tailored to each adversary, taking into account its unique geopolitical ambitions. But the sticks will have to include more aggressive deterrence, aimed not just at the hostile military and intelligence agencies that perpetrate cyberattacks but at the regimes to which those agencies answer. Cyberspace is not an isolated realm of its own, after all, but an extension of the broader geopolitical battlefield.”

89: The Case for Cyber-Realism: Geopolitical Problems Don’t Have Technical Solutions, submitted on 2022-01-07 23:35:51+08:00.

—– 89.1 —–2022-01-07 23:36:51+08:00:

[SS from the article Dmitri Alperovitch, Co-Founder and Chair of Silverado Policy Accelerator and Co-Founder and former Chief Technology Officer of the cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike.]

“As the range of cyberthreats multiplies and the frequency and severity of attacks increase, Washington needs a dose of cyber-realism. It must treat cyberthreats as a geopolitical and national security priority that demands hard-nosed diplomacy—backed by all of the United States’ tools for gaining leverage—to entice or threaten U.S. adversaries into changing their behavior, as Obama did in 2015. The specific carrots and sticks will need to be tailored to each adversary, taking into account its unique geopolitical ambitions. But the sticks will have to include more aggressive deterrence, aimed not just at the hostile military and intelligence agencies that perpetrate cyberattacks but at the regimes to which those agencies answer. Cyberspace is not an isolated realm of its own, after all, but an extension of the broader geopolitical battlefield.”

90: Foreign Affairs Open House: Winter 2022, submitted on 2022-01-08 00:11:49+08:00.

—– 90.1 —–2022-01-08 00:12:20+08:00:

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