• 146: Ukraine-Russia Conflict Megathread VII, submitted on 2022-03-08 03:42:24+08:00.
• 147: How to Stop a New Nuclear Arms Race: With Russia Going Rogue, America Must Cooperate With China, submitted on 2022-03-09 22:13:03+08:00.
• 148: Yoon Suk-yeol: South Korea Needs to Step Up, submitted on 2022-03-10 04:48:48+08:00.
• 149: Macron’s Mess in the Sahel: How a Failed French Mission Gave Russia New Sway in Africa, submitted on 2022-03-10 23:44:09+08:00.
• 150: The No-Fly Zone Delusion: In Ukraine, Good Intentions Can’t Redeem a Bad Idea, submitted on 2022-03-11 01:22:09+08:00.
• 151: The UN Is Another Casualty of Russia’s War: Why the Organization Might Never Bounce Back, submitted on 2022-03-11 01:58:17+08:00.
• 152: War in Ukraine Megathread VIII, submitted on 2022-03-11 14:00:31+08:00.
• 153: Putin’s Nuclear Bluff: How the West Can Make Sure Russia’s Threats Stay Hollow, submitted on 2022-03-11 22:33:03+08:00.

146: Ukraine-Russia Conflict Megathread VII, submitted on 2022-03-08 03:42:24+08:00.

—– 146.1 —–2022-03-08 21:53:42+08:00:

How the War in Ukraine Could Get Much Worse: Russia and the West Risk Falling Into a Deadly Spiral

147: How to Stop a New Nuclear Arms Race: With Russia Going Rogue, America Must Cooperate With China, submitted on 2022-03-09 22:13:03+08:00.

—– 147.1 —–2022-03-09 22:14:57+08:00:

[SS from the article by Rose Gottemoeller, Lecturer at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University and a Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution. She was Deputy Secretary General of NATO from 2016 to 2019.]

“Russia has been a giant of the nonproliferation regime. The major treaties of the twentieth century all benefitted from the skills of Russian negotiators and the wisdom of Russian experts. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, also known as the NPT, a momentous agreement that has curbed the spread of nuclear weapons for over half a century, was the product of joint problem solving by Soviet and American diplomats at a time when the two superpowers were facing off over the Middle East and Vietnam. Tensions were so high that the United States raised the nuclear alert level in 1967 after jittery U.S. military commanders detected a mysterious disruption to their surveillance radars (caused, it turned out, not by Soviet machinations but by a solar flare). Somehow, no matter how bad the crisis, the two countries continued talking to keep nuclear weapons under control and prevent their spread.

The invasion of Ukraine may end this admirable tradition. Russia could become more isolated and cease to play any responsible international role, as Medvedev’s threat to leave the New START treaty and shutter the embassies in Moscow suggests. Alternatively, Moscow could remain broadly at odds with its Western rivals but pick some arenas, such as nuclear nonproliferation, where it sees mutual advantage in meeting at the negotiating table. The United States, for its part, should do what it can to keep Russia engaged and constructive in arms control diplomacy. But Washington has good reason to be wary of Moscow’s increasingly rogue behavior and it should consider turning to another rival, Beijing, in seeking to prop up the nonproliferation regime. The costs of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine continue to mount, but the United States should act to limit wider damage to the architecture of international security.”

148: Yoon Suk-yeol: South Korea Needs to Step Up, submitted on 2022-03-10 04:48:48+08:00.

—– 148.1 —–2022-03-10 04:49:34+08:00:

[SS from the article by Yoon Suk-yeol, South Korea’s next president]

“South Korea should rise to the challenge of being a state that advances freedom, peace, and prosperity through liberal democratic values and substantial cooperation.” South Korea’s next president lays out his foreign policy vision.

149: Macron’s Mess in the Sahel: How a Failed French Mission Gave Russia New Sway in Africa, submitted on 2022-03-10 23:44:09+08:00.

—– 149.1 —–2022-03-10 23:45:04+08:00:

[SS from the article by Stephen Smith, former Africa Editor of Le Monde.]

“As war has returned to Europe, France is winding down its war in Africa. It is tempting to regard the coincidence of these two events—coming only six months after the United States pulled out from Afghanistan—as signaling a major shift in geopolitics. After 20 years of the global war on terrorism, the West is returning to a world of great-power rivalry and grand strategy. Today a crisis with Moscow, tomorrow perhaps Beijing. Amid the Russian onslaught on Ukraine, the doomed U.S. mission in Afghanistan and the French debacle in the Sahel suggest that the war on terrorism was a misguided and debilitating detour on the world’s periphery that has distracted the Western alliance from addressing its main threats.
Just as it was during the Cold War, however, Africa, has become a crucial battleground in the confrontation between the West and its rivals, Russia and China. In economic affairs, China’s influence in Africa far outweighs Russia’s. But on security matters, Moscow’s intervention on the continent has become increasingly important, in ways that directly contributed to the collapse of the French mission in the Sahel.”

150: The No-Fly Zone Delusion: In Ukraine, Good Intentions Can’t Redeem a Bad Idea, submitted on 2022-03-11 01:22:09+08:00.

—– 150.1 —–2022-03-11 01:23:28+08:00:

[SS from the article by Richard K. Betts, Professor of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University]

“The urge to help Ukraine is laudable. But the only things worse than watching the country’s slow-motion defeat would be to promise direct military intervention and then fail to follow through or, worse, to up the ante and turn what is now clearly a new cold war into a hot war—one that could produce destruction and casualties in the wider world on a scale that would make even the devastation of the current war in Ukraine seem insignificant.”

151: The UN Is Another Casualty of Russia’s War: Why the Organization Might Never Bounce Back, submitted on 2022-03-11 01:58:17+08:00.

—– 151.1 —–2022-03-11 01:58:57+08:00:

[SS from the article by Richard Gowan, UN director at International Crisis Group]

“With the Security Council facing a period of increasing fragmentation and paralysis, the United States and its allies will need to see what parts of the UN system they can still use to limit international instability. The Ukrainian conflict marks the most severe test for multilateralism since the end of the Cold War, and the full scale of its impact on international diplomacy is still unclear. But it may still be possible to preserve significant parts of the UN system to face future crises.”

152: War in Ukraine Megathread VIII, submitted on 2022-03-11 14:00:31+08:00.

—– 152.1 —–2022-03-15 22:35:08+08:00:

International Law Goes to War in Ukraine: The Legal Pushback to Russia’s Invasion By Oona A. Hathaway

153: Putin’s Nuclear Bluff: How the West Can Make Sure Russia’s Threats Stay Hollow, submitted on 2022-03-11 22:33:03+08:00.

—– 153.1 —–2022-03-11 22:34:16+08:00:

[SS from the article by Olga Oliker, Director of the Europe and Central Asia Program at the International Crisis Group]

“Although the Kremlin has shown a willingness to kill civilians and wreak havoc, using nuclear weapons would deviate from Russia’s own nuclear doctrine. The country does not need them to defeat Kyiv, and even if it did, detonating weapons of mass destruction would provoke international retaliation, including, quite possibly, direct military involvement from NATO. This risks both massive conventional war and further nuclear escalation—an outcome that Putin does not want. Rather than seriously considering strikes, Putin is more likely using the specter of nuclear escalation as cover for increasingly brutal tactics on the ground and to pressure Kyiv into surrendering. He may also hope that by threatening attacks, he can scare NATO away from increasing its involvement in the conflict or even get the West to make Ukraine submit…

Western powers should keep assisting Ukraine with the aim of convincing Moscow to reverse course and reach a negotiated settlement with Kyiv, one that guarantees Ukraine’s security. But as Western states debate new weapon provisions and ways of engagement, they must be aware of the dangers and avoid mission creep. If NATO offers Ukraine increasingly direct help, the organization risks finding itself in a war against Russia despite every intention of avoiding it.”