theoryofdoom在2022-03-28~2022-04-03的言论

2022-04-03 作者: theoryofdoom 原文 #Reddit 的其它文章

202: What are you drinking this week? (Weekly Discussion), submitted on 2022-03-28 20:00:11+08:00.

—– 202.1 —–2022-03-29 12:52:59+08:00:

Cruz de Malta, my go-to.

203: A capybara drinking mate, submitted on 2022-03-28 21:49:59+08:00.

—– 203.1 —–2022-03-29 12:47:16+08:00:

Only mate peaks the world’s most chill animal’s interests.

204: The Taliban Have Not Moderated: An Extremist Regime Is Pushing Afghanistan to the Brink, submitted on 2022-03-28 23:25:18+08:00.

—– 204.1 —–2022-03-29 12:40:11+08:00:

This was a very timely and insightful article.

205: Unofficial Daily Update for 2022-03-28. 748 New Cases., submitted on 2022-03-29 02:00:20+08:00.

—– 205.1 —–2022-03-29 08:16:08+08:00:

Each new armageddon has failed to materialize as expected, yet people continue to expect as much. Over and over and over again.

—– 205.2 —–2022-03-29 08:17:42+08:00:

What, if any, justification was provided for that hypothesized “increase in cases”?

And who communicated it?

—– 205.3 —–2022-03-29 08:21:10+08:00:

the word “surge” and “wave”

Neither the word “surge” nor “wave” have any epidemiological significance. They are media buzzwords, used to characterize trends in data in more or less sensational ways. Further, if you were going to see significantly increased hospitalizations, they’d have been rolling in by now.

—– 205.4 —–2022-03-29 08:22:30+08:00:

The signal-to-noise ratio [is too damn high] . . . .

This is correct.

—– 205.5 —–2022-03-29 10:16:34+08:00:

Multiple public officials

They were cited in the e-mail you referenced?

Who are they?

—– 205.6 —–2022-03-29 10:25:31+08:00:

For some reason, people seem to think that our rules do not apply to those who prophecy impending doom. All should be disabused of that notion. We have organized a multifaceted salvo against unsubstantiated, baseless speculation and there is no end in sight. As I have previously stated:

We do not allow mindless prophecy of doom, on any timescale. The era of unhinged speculation about impending armageddon without even plausible evidence to support such an inference is over.

If a reasonable observer cannot distinguish your claim from something foretold by the oracle of delphi, it likely violates our rules.

—– 205.7 —–2022-03-29 10:35:56+08:00:

Ok. Let’s see if we’re on the same page.

You work at a hospital. Your hospital says they’re expecting an increase of COVID cases/hospitalizations at some point in April. The hospital assumes this means greater staffing demands, which is why they communicated it to you. The hospital did not state what, if any, basis it had for why it expects an increase? I don’t expect they would, where the purpose of the e-mail is just to say “hey don’t go on vacation any time soon,” but something approximating evidence to support the claim would have been helpful. Let me know if I’ve missed anything.

I’m just going to tell you that I am aware of the narrow cohort of TV-based public health “experts” talking about their expectations for April 2022 and I don’t care. I find their opinions unpersuasive for the same reason I have found every other such forecast from Neil Ferguson’s in March 2020, and forward to the present, unpersuasive. This nonsense entails little more than the reckless use of speculative, unreliable methods to interpret incomplete, incorrect and unrepresentative data sets, with uncalibrated models that produce forecasts off by orders of magnitude.

—– 205.8 —–2022-03-30 10:51:01+08:00:

U/saveaday89 never said anything about a “significant increase in hospitalizations”.

Maybe you missed that my reply was limited to use of the terms “surge” or “wave”? Let us review, together.

  1. Do you understand what the word “significant” means?
  2. How about when used in this context, that context being its use as an adjective to describe the phenomena of an “increased hospitalizations”?
  3. Do you understand the terms “surge” or “wave” to refer to something less than a “significant” increase in hospitalizations?

They said an increase.

You are referring to one person, not multiple people.

Which if past data and experience is any indication, yes, it’s likely there might be an increase.

“[L]ikely there might be . . . “ is incoherently vague, to the point that your claim is nonsensical. Which is in keeping with the otherwise hyperbolic tone of your response, lacking in its entirety of anything vaguely resembling evidence.

you seem to be quite hysterical about anyone

It’s incredible that you’d use a singular “they” while simultaneously using the inherently sexist word “hysterical,” which has been used to attack and discredit women since the Victorian era. And frankly, characterizing something you disagree with as “hysterical” with no objective evidence to support any such indication is better suited for Twitter than this subreddit.

Seems like all of this is all out of your ballpark. Particularly where you chose to interpret my comment directed to someone else (and not you) as at once “making fun of” that individual and engaging in something “hysterical.”

206: Unofficial Daily Update for 2022-03-29. 1586 New Cases., submitted on 2022-03-30 02:00:20+08:00.

—– 206.1 —–2022-03-30 12:53:35+08:00:

Since when are we pretending COVID doesn’t matter?

COVID is always going to matter. It is here with us, probably forever.

The challenge is how we contend with it.

—– 206.2 —–2022-03-30 13:05:52+08:00:

They will continue to rise and fall, though we still haven’t sorted out the existential question of “what is a case,” when a “case” can be measured in at least four different ways (PCR positive, regardless of Ct; PCR positive, high Ct (>20); PCR positive, low Ct (<20); antigen), without regard to symptomatology, according to three different sensitivity levels for detection. But why bother with that when we can’t even get representative samples?

207: what piece of propaganda did the most damage?, submitted on 2022-03-31 21:24:40+08:00.

—– 207.1 —–2022-04-01 08:49:47+08:00:

Nuclear Fear is wholly to prop up Oil and Coal, and that’s it. Nuclear can easily replace fossil fuels ON THE INCREDIBLY HARD TO HANDLE BASELOADS that cannot be covered by Wind/Solar/Trad Green (Nuclear FISSION is green) with today’s technology. No need to wait for further developments or needs to cover downtimes related to weather/etc [availability of Solar/Wind/etc.]

Well said. People do not realize the level of harm the anti-nuclear movement has caused. But that harm includes, at the very least, the incredible environmental destruction caused by coal-burning power plants throughout at least the United States and much of Europe. Germany and Poland in particular are some of the most egregious examples of this.

Beyond the environmental harm, there is no obvious upper limit to the geopolitical harm the antinuclear movement has caused and continues to cause. For example, Europe’s demand for natural gas renders it beholden to Russia, on whom the continent relies for supply. The harm created by that market demand continues to compound (e.g., Russia’s conquest over Ukraine, from Crimea to present, which is essentially a fight over the natural gas reserves in the Black Sea and particularly within Ukraine’s exclusive economic zone).

—– 207.2 —–2022-04-01 12:17:07+08:00:

Understanding the agenda-setting function of high profile government or public initiatives is critical to understanding American politics, especially in the 20th century. Orienting public focus in this way implies that the problem must be solved at the governmental level, which is the first step in the process of manufacturing consent. From prohibition to the wars on drugs, poverty, terror and beyond, each such case expands the power of government — usually at the federal level. The goals in each of these cases may be different, but the result always tends to be the same (especially for the those that don’t have the political capital to shape public policy).

208: Why Ukraine is the Nazi state?, submitted on 2022-04-03 02:12:23+08:00.

—– 208.1 —–2022-04-03 03:01:03+08:00:

Locked and permanently banned.

209: Gross Mistranslation Error in Crime and Punishment (P&V)?, submitted on 2022-04-03 08:02:49+08:00.

—– 209.1 —–2022-04-03 11:45:22+08:00:

This is something that’s been debated since P&V first came on the scene. The only people who agree they’re better are people who don’t speak Russian and English fluently, but who read David Remnick’s poorly written article so many years ago and just repeat what he said.

Morson is absolutely right. Remnick is an idiot who doesn’t speak Russian. People can search through the comments I’ve written on this issue that are, by now, almost five years old if they want to see the issue discussed in greater depth.

—– 209.2 —–2022-04-03 22:19:37+08:00:

I discuss this issue in greater depth here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/dostoevsky/comments/fb5kq2/pros_and_cons_of_different_brothers_karamazov/fj2tzpv/

https://www.reddit.com/r/dostoevsky/comments/fln485/what_does_everyone_think_of_constance_garnetts/

https://www.reddit.com/r/dostoevsky/comments/d228hz/translations_have_ruined_dostoevsky/ezsh32e/

210: My professor my class that Beslan “almost brought down Putin’s government.” Is this true or and if so, how? How did the situation unfold in the Kremlin?, submitted on 2022-04-03 18:16:22+08:00.

—– 210.1 —–2022-04-04 00:31:23+08:00:

This is a great question, but it’s related primarily to domestic politics. DM me if you want to discuss Beslan and Putin’s government or you can try to submit it to /r/magnitsky or /r/politicalwarfare.

Since this issue focuses on a challenge with Russia internally, it’s not really appropriate here.

文章版权归原作者所有。
二维码分享本站