theoryofdoom在2022-04-18~2022-04-24的言论

2022-04-24 作者: theoryofdoom 原文 #Reddit 的其它文章

226: NATO Cyber Game Tests Defenses Amid War in Ukraine, submitted on 2022-04-18 20:10:30+08:00.

—– 226.1 —–2022-04-18 20:18:03+08:00:

Submission Statement: Locked Shields is an annual cyber wargames exercise, this year held in Tallinn, Estonia. While hosted by NATO countries, Ukrainians will join the team of more than 30 representatives from NATO-related organizations and member countries. This year, exercises will focus on interdependencies between national IT systems.

—– 226.2 —–2022-04-18 20:21:23+08:00:

No Paywall: https://archive.ph/9LZHA

The above link may not be available in certain countries, due to your local laws/regulations. If you cannot view above link, that is why.

227: Flaggschiff der Russisches Schwarzmeerflotte “Moskwa” ist Gesunken (English - Russian Flagship of the Black Sea “Moskva” Has Sunk), submitted on 2022-04-18 20:42:05+08:00.

—– 227.1 —–2022-04-18 20:51:11+08:00:

Submission Statement: Several days ago, the Moskva sank. This ship was the flagship vessel of Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet. According to the Kremlin, this loss was due to “fire caused by the detonation of ammunition.” According to Ukrainian sources, that fire was caused by one or more anti-ship torpedoes, at least partially in response to the confrontation between a Russian warship and the Ukrainian military on Snake Island. Loss of the Moskva is the most significant Russian naval loss since WWII. Military experts suggest this may cause the Kremlin to reevaluate its strategy in the Black Sea and Ukraine, more generally.

—– 227.2 —–2022-04-18 20:53:28+08:00:

No Paywall: https://archive.ph/JNPcV

Note that if you are located in certain countries, the above link may not work for you.

228: Unofficial Daily Update for 2022-04-18. 1303 New Cases., submitted on 2022-04-19 02:00:17+08:00.

—– 228.1 —–2022-04-19 08:22:43+08:00:

Vent numbers have been weird lately.

Two factors may be in play there, at least. Change in protocol in addition to less acute symptom onset.

—– 228.2 —–2022-04-19 08:33:32+08:00:

It’s the same few posters who frequent right wing subs and covid denial subs

In this subreddit, we allow diverse political viewpoints to be expressed so long as they’re within the bounds of reason — which includes disagreeing with the significance of present trends. It is when those disagreements shift in scope from questions over the significance of trends, or purported trends, to partisan characterizations of anyone who disagrees with you that those discussions become a problem. Make no mistake on this point, either: both “sides” give as good as they get and neither is more guilty of promulgating misinformation than the other — a concept many truly struggle to comprehend.

229: Two teenage boys die in their sleep days after their second Pfizer injection. Epidemiologist confirms the injections were fatal and caused the death. Peer reviewed study by College of American Pathologists also confirm the injections killed these two boys., submitted on 2022-04-19 05:04:05+08:00.

—– 229.1 —–2022-04-19 08:05:52+08:00:

The reporting here is questionable, but if you’d linked the study it may have been allowed.

230: CDC mask mandate for travelers no longer in effect following judge’s ruling, official says, submitted on 2022-04-19 07:06:43+08:00.

—– 230.1 —–2022-04-19 13:27:57+08:00:

It’s fucking stupid . . . .

Sure. Everyone who disagrees with you is a right wing conspiracy theorist and also literally Hitler. Now that we have that out of the way, why not try to say something constructive?

—– 230.2 —–2022-04-19 13:34:31+08:00:

This is so all so transparently political. Biden admin extended the airline mandate because they knew this ruling was coming down, and I’m sure had four clerks monitoring the docket to see when the opinion issued. When it did, they immediately pivoted to blame a Republican judge just like Pritzker did when his mandates were struck. Which is what was wanted all along. And now here we are.

This is so exhaustingly stupid.

—– 230.3 —–2022-04-19 13:35:20+08:00:

There’s a non-zero chance he wanted this.

Understatement of the century.

—– 230.4 —–2022-04-19 13:38:01+08:00:

It’s a federal development. Local and state mandates may still apply, but that’s uncertain. For example, the only reason the CTA mandated masks was because of the federal mandate. With the federal mandate gone, CTA might drop theirs too. But they might not. Only the (political) science will tell.

—– 230.5 —–2022-04-19 13:40:10+08:00:

There is no point in bothering with evidence, when you have faith. And this is an argument that is taking place at the religious level for many. You cannot reason someone out of something he or she was not reasoned into.

—– 230.6 —–2022-04-19 13:52:06+08:00:

I am kind of surprised it was extended it by two weeks to only be struck down by a judge, you would think they could have seen that coming?

Of course they saw it coming. That was the point, as reflected in this sequence of events’ conformity with prior unfoldings at both the state and federal levels.

Here’s the pattern:

  • Step 1 - Extend mandate indefinitely, decouple from any purported “metric.”
  • Step 2 - Face lawsuit, in view of overreach and abuse of power based on “safety” and “public health.”
  • Step 3 - Make lots of noise about how your political rivals are threatening safety and public health by filing lawsuit.
  • Step 4 - Lose lawsuit, while blaming opposing party for all harm that follows after.

Wisconsin. Colorado. Illinois. Etc.

Federal Vaccine Mandate Round 1. Federal Vaccine Mandate Round 2. Federal mask mandate on travel. Etc.

Who is to blame? Republicans.

Who is not to blame? Democrats.

Why? Republicans filed lawsuits to end the overreach.

It is really that simple.

I think this is an absurd strategy. But it’s clearly the strategy because like everyone is doing it.

—– 230.7 —–2022-04-19 19:56:19+08:00:

I’m being downvoted because there is a very large group of people who cannot come to terms with the reality of what these mandates have become.

—– 230.8 —–2022-04-19 20:54:07+08:00:

but unscientific, well, that’s not correct.

You are mistaken.

  • Cochrane Review finds that “[c]ompared with wearing no mask, wearing a mask may make little to no difference in how many people caught a flu-like illness (9 studies; 3507 people); and probably makes no difference in how many people have flu confirmed by a laboratory test (6 studies; 3005 people),” based on nine published studies comprising “[s]even studies [which] took place in the community, and two studies in healthcare workers.” They further concluded “[c]ompared with wearing medical or surgical masks, wearing N95/P2 respirators probably makes little to no difference in how many people have confirmed flu (5 studies; 8407 people); and may make little to no difference in how many people catch a flu-like illness (5 studies; 8407 people) or respiratory illness (3 studies; 7799 people).”
  • Guerra 2021 concludes “[m]ask mandates and use are not associated with slower state-level COVID-19 spread during COVID-19 growth surges.”
  • Xiao 2020 found that “evidence from 14 randomized controlled trials of these measures did not support a substantial effect on transmission.”
  • Klompas 2020 explained that “[w]hat is clear, however, is that universal masking alone is not a panacea. A mask will not protect providers caring for a patient with active Covid-19 if it’s not accompanied by meticulous hand hygiene, eye protection, gloves, and a gown. A mask alone will not prevent health care workers with early Covid-19 from contaminating their hands and spreading the virus to patients and colleagues. Focusing on universal masking alone may, paradoxically, lead to more transmission of Covid-19 if it diverts attention from implementing more fundamental infection-control measures.”
  • Jefferson 2020 reports that “[c]ompared to no masks there was no reduction of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases (Risk Ratio 0.93, 95%CI 0.83 to 1.05) or influenza (Risk Ratio 0.84, 95%CI 0.61-1.17) for masks in the general population, nor in healthcare workers (Risk Ratio 0.37, 95%CI 0.05 to 2.50). There was no difference between surgical masks and N95 respirators: for ILI (Risk Ratio 0.83, 95%CI 0.63 to 1.08), for influenza (Risk Ratio 1.02, 95%CI 0.73 to 1.43).”
  • Radonovich 2019 helpfully illustrates the state of the state of the art before everyone in the alleged field of public health turned off their brain, in investigating the question of whether use of N95 respirators or medical masks more effective in preventing influenza infection among outpatient health care personnel in close contact with patients with suspected respiratory illness. Of course, the data from “this pragmatic, cluster randomized clinical trial involving 2862 health care personnel” indicated “no significant difference in the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza among health care personnel with the use of N95 respirators (8.2%) vs medical masks (7.2%).” And as exemplified by, for example, Smith 2016, that was to be expected.

There is not now, nor has there ever been, scientific evidence of any kind supporting the propositions that: (a) mask use reduces COVID transmission or the wearer’s susceptibility to infection (whether by COVID or any other coronavirus); and (b) mandated mask use reduces community spread of either COVID or any such respiratory virus.

—– 230.9 —–2022-04-20 08:40:47+08:00:

There’s a cognitive dissonance aspect of it, yes. But it’s also that I speak from an informed position on these issues. So, instead of actually talking about the state of the scientific research or any particular findings, a large cohort will just downvote to express their disagreement with what I have said, based solely on what they think they understand, to the extent they can’t speak intelligently on these issues.

—– 230.10 —–2022-04-20 08:47:15+08:00:

Here’s the bottom line. People were told by “experts” to do something, which was inconvenient to them. The “experts” told them the inconvenience was justified, for the greater good. People bore those sacrifices, through months of fogged glasses and frustrated conversations.

Then they see what I’ve said, and react with a “WTF is this guy even talking about?!?!?!?!” Understandably so, because they’ve been told the same thing for so long.

But what matters is what is true. Truth matters more than ideology or politics, and the truth is what the data say. Period.

—– 230.11 —–2022-04-21 20:15:22+08:00:

Let me be clear on this point too:

In this subreddit, we deal in good faith with the facts based on actual scientific evidence, including as the state of the research may evolve over time. To that end, we cite, among other things, scientific journals and publications related to these issues. Thus, the standards are higher here than in numerous other subreddits related to coronavirus. Most of it is even open access. With that wealth of knowledge being accessible, it’s just not good enough to rely on second, third or fourth-hand accounts or interpretations.

I understand folks may have broadly different levels of proficiency in navigating journals, articles, meta-analyses and other related medical research. And if you encounter a source-type that you have not seen before, it is your responsibility to try to learn.

For example, a systematic review attempts to identify, appraise and synthesize all the empirical evidence that meets pre-specified eligibility criteria to answer a specific research question. Researchers conducting systematic reviews use explicit, systematic methods that are selected with a view aimed at minimizing bias, to produce more reliable findings to inform decision making.

A Cochrane Review is a systematic review of research in health care and health policy that is published in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. If you report a Cochrane Review, one of which I have cited above, as “misinformation,” you foreclose any prospect that your opinions on any medical or health related issue can be taken seriously.

—– 230.12 —–2022-04-22 04:23:48+08:00:

CTA

Source? I’m not sure I got that memo?

—– 230.13 —–2022-04-26 12:15:18+08:00:

as if it’s their exclusive right to have “the science” on their side.

Indeed. That’s what happens when televangelist-type charlatans like Francis Collins rise to positions of influence and have the audacity to call actually competent experts, like Dr. Jay Bhattacharya (Stanford), “fringe” epidemiologists.

231: TSA will no longer enforce mask mandate after a federal judge strikes it down, submitted on 2022-04-19 09:28:21+08:00.

—– 231.1 —–2022-04-19 19:58:52+08:00:

Maybe if we ever get a libertarian elected, we can roll back all of the war on terror’s imperious overreach. Wouldn’t it be nice . . . .

232: Masks Still Required on CTA After Federal Judge Strikes Down CDC Mandate, submitted on 2022-04-20 01:04:20+08:00.

—– 232.1 —–2022-04-20 08:18:41+08:00:

There’s a lot of uncertainty over what is required. Let’s not risk giving incorrect advice, because people are still sorting this out. For example, some airlines might still be requiring masks but others might not.

233: Unofficial Daily Update for 2022-04-19. 2471 New Cases., submitted on 2022-04-20 02:00:21+08:00.

—– 233.1 —–2022-04-20 20:00:03+08:00:

So unless there is some awful side effect from Covid that everyone will get from an asymptomatic infection, again, I think we’re going to be okay.

That’s the outstanding question that remains unresolved.

—– 233.2 —–2022-04-20 20:31:47+08:00:

We know some people have experienced varied long term effects, some of which are questionable but others are more serious and significant. At least based on current information, the most serious questions revolve around the potential for neurologic damage as a result of COVID infection. See NIH Resources on this issue for further discussion on the same.

234: A Mighty Sword: Iran’s Oil Caught Up In Russian Geopolitics, submitted on 2022-04-20 20:08:33+08:00.

—– 234.1 —–2022-04-20 20:26:40+08:00:

Submission Statement:

This Eurasia Review op-ed considers the significance of Iran’s cooperation with Russia on gas exports, in view of the war Russia initiated against Ukraine. Based on currently proven reserves, Iran is in a position to meet approximately 20% of European demand for natural gas from its Chalous gas field. Yet, Tehran appears to be coordinating with Moscow and will not do so without Russia’s sign-off because Iran has recently agreed to let Russia control who it exports natural gas to and at what price the exported gas will be purchased. The op-ed proposes that this bilateral coordination between Iran and Russia will enable Moscow to further throttle the inflow of natural gas to the European continent. By implication, Iran’s cooperation enables Russia to maintain geopolitical power based on that market influence.

—– 234.2 —–2022-04-21 19:37:26+08:00:

Is there anymore color on this? What agreement is this a reference to? This is a very surprising claim.

Yes. This is one of several reasons why I recommend people (and Americans, specifically) follow diverse news sources, including those outside the United States. American media simply do not cover all that matters in the world. Even if they do, the way they cover what matters often is inadequate. For example, Iran’s move has been covered throughout the European press and elsewhere but it barely gets a mention even in Reuters. Despite the fact that it’s one of the most consequential developments to occur since Vladimir Putin began this unconscionable war in Ukraine.

Another point of consideration consideration relates to the echo chamber risk. American media’s coverage of international developments — like the current mischief Iran is engaging in to support Vladimir Putin’s regime — is often superficially narrow, decontextualized and does not explain what these events mean in context or in the big picture. Or when some of these types do weigh in, all of the perspectives that can be expressed fit between two fairly narrow poles. But the rest of the world often sees things very differently. And we (i.e., Americans) can’t simply disregard what people outside our borders think. We cannot hope to be effective on the world stage otherwise.

—– 234.3 —–2022-04-21 19:53:12+08:00:

It is not that Russia is dictating (“essentially control[ling]”) Iran’s foreign policy. Even though Russia and Iran are competitors in the petrochemical export game, their interests are aligned against the United States. That has been true since the Iranian “revolution” in 1979 and long before the Soviet Union fell.

Additionally, and as you rightly note, the current regime in Tehran is extremely hesitant to engage Washington. In part, that’s because of Trump’s sanctions but it’s also because of how the Biden administration approached reviving the nuclear deal. Iran would rather cooperate with Russia on the hope that Russia will continue to support its nuclear program’s development, because Tehran views pursuing that objective as more important to its long term interests.

It’s also more realistic than trying to participate in the European natural gas market, because doing so would irreparably harm their relationship with Moscow and translate into little if any gain (and with a very low prospect of realization). Cooperating with Moscow is the safer bet for them.

That development should be seriously concerning to Washington. For obvious reasons.

—– 234.4 —–2022-04-21 20:35:14+08:00:

Yours are important and worthwhile points, specifically relating to infrastructure. For example, a big reason why Germany continues to remain beholden to Russian gas is because that country lacks the ability to convert LNG transferred by tanker at anything approximating the scale of its needs. I agree that at the current time, Iranian exports to the European continent are impractical. However, Germany is likely to substantially expand that infrastructure in the coming years. If it did, that could open the door for Iranian exports. But on a prospective pipeline, there is nothing impracticable about its construction. More challenging projects have already been completed and/or are underway at this moment.

235: A video filmed by russians showing a naked male ukranian POW face down on a medical table being operated on is apparently not “non consensual intimate media” according to the report system., submitted on 2022-04-20 21:07:31+08:00.

—– 235.1 —–2022-04-21 12:17:15+08:00:

The act of recording that video was a war crime and the fact that it’s out there in circulation is proof. There is no world where Reddit’s policy against involuntary pornography can be used to justify censoring evidence of Russian war crimes.

Beyond the obvious, a common sense check is in order. The concept of “intimate media,” while vague, means pornography. The purpose of the rule was to prevent distribution of certain types of pornography. If the meaning of that term is so broad, then Pulitzer Prize winning journalism from the Vietnam War would violate it. Obviously that was not the intention.

236: Bachelor Thesis on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Topic Suggestions?, submitted on 2022-04-20 23:55:53+08:00.

—– 236.1 —–2022-04-21 12:07:36+08:00:

DM me. We don’t typically allow questions like this, but I’d be happy to point you in the right direction.

237: Former cult leader and sexual predator now running children’s daycare, who can I contact?, submitted on 2022-04-22 07:02:52+08:00.

—– 237.1 —–2022-04-22 20:59:37+08:00:

Obviously, contact local law enforcement.

238: Changes in reporting?, submitted on 2022-04-23 05:44:27+08:00.

—– 238.1 —–2022-04-24 00:04:58+08:00:

is there a reason why I see so many [unavailable] posts from [deleted] posters?

I’d imagine a lot of users have blocked you. So, that means that you’ll be unable to see their activity and they will be unable to see yours after they block you.

In my opinion, Reddit screwed that up catastrophically. But my opinion is pretty much worthless to them on that issue.

—– 238.2 —–2022-04-24 00:08:04+08:00:

I could understand said users blocking habits if people were being overly obnoxious.

I think mental illness plays a significant role. When people cannot psychologically handle being confronted with opinions or facts that differ from theirs, they may lower their engagement. Reddit wants them on the site, which is why they’re allowing users to shield themselves from opinions that differ from their own.

—– 238.3 —–2022-04-24 00:37:58+08:00:

I am not going to discuss specific instances of user misconduct or moderation decisions with respect to the same.

But, I will clarify that users are not banned for “bashing” moderators. In most cases, users are warned repeatedly before they are banned. We used to do that by replying in the comment section, but it’s not clear that doing so adds much value anymore.

A lot of problem users just ignore our warnings and then claim to be the victim of oppression because we will not allow them to call people they disagree with “plague rats,” or other such nonsense. Then, after numerous instances of uncivil conduct and/or other rule violations, they get banned. We have records of the warnings we’ve sent and all prior moderator decisions, and they number in the hundreds if I was to estimate. While I can understand that you might be skeptical, your view is based on the limited perspective of what you see in the context of any particular incident — far less information than we are working with.

There are, however, examples where banned users have created accounts solely for the purpose of trolling and/or harassing this sub and other users or where specific users have encouraged brigading and other site violations, by encouraging harassment of others from outside of this subreddit. That’s an automatic ban, because it’s done in bad faith and in violation of our prohibition against self help. In such context, there is no world where we are going to allow users to blatantly violate site policies, even if the target of their rule-violating ire is a moderator. And I suspect those are the cases you’re referring to, because those are the only cases I’m aware of that you could have plausibly referred to.

Ban evasion and brigading are unacceptable. Period. There is no room for negotiation on that front. When we see multi-accounts, they’re reported up the chain. Same with brigading. The amount of mentally ill users who waste our time with that nonsense has increased substantially in the past few months, too.

—– 238.4 —–2022-04-24 04:56:55+08:00:

I guess I don’t pay close enough attention, because I have no idea who you are talking about. Can you send the username of that person to modmail and I’ll take a look?

—– 238.5 —–2022-04-24 05:07:28+08:00:

Note: It is actually hilarious that certain users stalk me and downvote everything I have said. We’re keeping tabs on vote manipulation and other matters. Meanwhile, y’all have too much time on your hands. rofl

—– 238.6 —–2022-04-24 10:47:14+08:00:

Different mod. Different call.

—– 238.7 —–2022-04-24 10:53:23+08:00:

Yes, it’s new in the last month or so. Incredible stupidity on Reddit’s part.

239: The first half of Notes from Underground has upset and disturbed me, I feel humiliated and ashamed, really., submitted on 2022-04-23 07:47:29+08:00.

—– 239.1 —–2022-04-24 03:37:21+08:00:

Reading Notes from Underground and actually understanding it is like standing in a the bathroom as the fog clears from the mirror in front of you. You start out seeing the general form and trick yourself into thinking that what you’re seeing in front of you isn’t you, until the mirror is clean and you can no longer deny it.

240: Taking public transit? Here’s what to know about masks, submitted on 2022-04-24 04:20:28+08:00.

—– 240.1 —–2022-04-24 04:21:37+08:00:

No Paywall: https://archive.ph/K85EH

—– 240.2 —–2022-04-24 06:54:53+08:00:

Thanks for catching that. Another great thing about archiving is that we can see how reports change over time.

Amazing how quickly the [Political] Science^TM changes.

241: Study to see if there is relationship between political opinion and personality of an individual, submitted on 2022-04-24 14:27:49+08:00.

—– 241.1 —–2022-04-24 14:29:24+08:00:

Do not submit surveys without our prior permission, which was not granted here.

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