ForeignAffairsMag在2022-12-19~2022-12-25的言论
- 328: China’s Dangerous Decline: Washington Must Adjust as Beijing’s Troubles Mount, submitted on 2022-12-20 00:10:30+08:00.
- 329: Putin’s Last Stand: The Promise and Peril of Russian Defeat - Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage, submitted on 2022-12-22 01:32:27+08:00.
328: China’s Dangerous Decline: Washington Must Adjust as Beijing’s Troubles Mount, submitted on 2022-12-20 00:10:30+08:00.
—– 328.1 —–2022-12-20 00:20:02+08:00:
From Jonathan Tepperman: “It has been a head-spinning season, even by the turbulent standards of contemporary China. But underneath the noise, the events all carried the same signal: that far from a rising behemoth, as it is often portrayed by the U.S. media and American leaders, China is teetering on the edge of a cliff. Ten years of President Xi Jinping’s “reforms”—widely characterized in the West as successful power plays—have made the country frail and brittle, exacerbating its underlying problems while giving rise to new ones. Although a growing number of Western analysts—including Michael Beckley, Jude Blanchette, Hal Brands, Robert Kaplan, Susan Shirk, and Fareed Zakaria—have begun to highlight this reality, many American commentators, and most politicians (ranging from former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to President Joe Biden), still frame the U.S.-China contest in terms of Beijing’s ascent. And if they do acknowledge China’s mounting crises, they often cast them as either neutral or positive developments for the United States. But the opposite is true. Far from good news, a weak, stagnant, or collapsing China would be even more dangerous than a thriving one—not just for the country itself, but for the world.”
329: Putin’s Last Stand: The Promise and Peril of Russian Defeat - Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage, submitted on 2022-12-22 01:32:27+08:00.
—– 329.1 —–2022-12-22 01:43:22+08:00:
From Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage: “War is inherently unpredictable. Indeed, the course of the conflict has served to invalidate widespread early prognostications that Ukraine would quickly fall; a reversal of fortunes is impossible to discount. It nevertheless appears that Russia is headed for defeat. Less certain is what form this defeat will take. Three basic scenarios exist, and each one would have different ramifications for policymakers in the West and Ukraine. . . . The first and least likely scenario is that Russia will agree to its defeat by accepting a negotiated settlement on Ukraine’s terms. . . . A second scenario for Russian defeat would involve failure amid escalation. . . . The final scenario for the war’s end would be defeat through regime collapse, with the decisive battles taking place not in Ukraine but rather in the halls of the Kremlin or in the streets of Moscow.”
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