ForeignAffairsMag在2022-10-24~2022-10-30的言论
315: Don’t Rule Out Diplomacy in Ukraine: Biden’s Current Strategy Risks Escalation and Forever War, submitted on 2022-10-29 00:14:46+08:00.
—– 315.1 —–2022-10-29 00:24:53+08:00:
[SS from the essay by Samuel Charap, Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation; and Miranda Priebe, Senior Political Scientist and Director of the Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy at the RAND Corporation.]
Barring regime change, the likely pathways forward given current Ukrainian, U.S. and allied policies are either Russian escalation, as noted above, or a conflict of indefinite duration. A protracted war could benefit Washington to the extent that it weakens Moscow and forces it to pare back its ambitions elsewhere. But a war that drags on would also have significant downsides for the United States. It would continue to eat up military and financial resources as well as the time and energy of U.S. policymakers, diminishing Washington’s ability to prioritize long-term strategic competition with China. A protracted conflict would likely also sustain the deep freeze in U.S.-Russian relations, potentially jeopardizing cooperation between Washington and Moscow on issues of global importance, such as arms control.
A long war would also disrupt the global economy. The United States’ most important trading partners and allies in Europe would be the hardest hit, mainly because of higher energy prices. And, of course, the country that would suffer the most—in terms of lives lost, infrastructure destroyed, and economic devastation—is Ukraine. Even a conflict that continues at a lower level of intensity would disrupt the economy and scare off investment, complicating the country’s economic recovery.
In an op-ed in The New York Times in May, Biden wrote that U.S. military assistance to Ukraine was intended to put the country’s leaders in “in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.” Quoting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, he wrote that “ultimately this war ‘will only definitively end through diplomacy.’” Five months later, that diplomacy has yet to materialize—a fact for which Russia bears primary responsibility.
But the United States could be doing more to enable diplomacy.
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